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Menntun, starfsvettvangur og framtíðarhorfur á vinnumarkaði íslenskra skurðlækna

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Authors
Tómas Guðbjartsson
Halla Viðarsdóttir
Sveinn Magnússon
Issue Date
2010-10-01

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Education, working environment and future employment prospects of Icelandic surgeons
Citation
Læknablaðið 2010, 96(10):603-9
Abstract
Introduction: Information about the education, training and future employment prospects of Icelandic surgeons has not been available. Materials and methods: The study included all Icelandic surgeons, in all subspecialties, educated at the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Iceland. Information on specialty training, higher academic degrees and in which country these were obtained was collected. Future employment prospects were analysed by calculating supply and demand until the year 2025. Approximations, such as sustained demand for surgeons per capita, were used. Results: Out of 237 licensed surgeons, two thirds were living in Iceland and 36 were retired. Majority (69.2%) had been trained in Sweden and orthopaedic (26.9%) and general surgery (23.9%) were the most common subspecialties. The average age of surgeons in Iceland was 52 years and 44 years for surgeons abroad. Females were 8% of surgeons in Iceland while being 17.4% among 36 doctors in surgical training overseas. Over 19% had received a PhD degree. Predictions suggest that supply and demand for surgeons in Iceland will be equal in the year 2025, not taking into account the prospects for the working market outside Iceland. Conclusion: A third of Icelandic surgeons live outside Iceland. The proportion of female surgeons is low but it is increasing. Our predictions indicate a balanced work market for surgeons in Iceland for the next 15 years. However, there are many uncertainty factors in the calculations and they do not predict the prospects for individual subspecialties.
Inngangur: Hér á landi hefur vantað upplýsingar um menntun íslenskra skurðlækna og framtíðarhorfur á vinnumarkaði. Efniviður og aðferðir: Rannsóknin náði til allra íslenskra skurðlækna sem útskrifaðir eru frá læknadeild HÍ, í öllum undirsérgreinum skurðlækninga, og búsettir eru á Íslandi eða erlendis. Safnað var upplýsingum um sérgrein, menntunarland og prófgráður, en einnig lagt mat á framboð og eftirspurn á vinnumarkaði fram til ársins 2025. Beitt var nálgunum, meðal annars að þörf fyrir þjónustu skurðlækna myndi haldast óbreytt miðað við íbúafjölda. Niðurstöður: Af 237 skurðlæknum með sérfræðiréttindi í ágúst 2008 voru tveir af hverjum þremur búsettir á Íslandi og 36 komnir á eftirlaun. Rúmlega 2/3 höfðu stundað sérnám í Svíþjóð og flestir störfuðu innan bæklunar- (26,9%) og almennra skurðlækninga (23,9%). Meðalaldur skurðlækna á Íslandi var 52 ár og 44 ár erlendis. Hlutfall kvenna var 8% á Íslandi en 17,4% á meðal 36 lækna í sérnámi erlendis. Alls höfðu 19,7% lokið doktorsprófi. Spár benda til að árið 2025 muni framboð og eftirspurn eftir skurðlæknum á Íslandi að mestu haldast í hendur, en í þessum útreikningum er ekki litið sérstaklega á vinnumarkað þeirra erlendis. Ályktun: Þriðjungur íslenskra skurðlækna er búsettur erlendis. Hlutfall kvenna er lágt en fer hækkandi. Næsta áratug munu margir skurðlæknar á Íslandi fara á eftirlaun og endurnýjun því fyrirsjáanleg. Framboð og eftirspurn virðast í þokkalegu jafnvægi hér á landi en erfiðara er að ráða í þróun vinnumarkaðs skurðlækna erlendis. Rétt er þó að hafa í huga að óvissuþættir eru margir í þessum útreikningum og ná ekki til einstakra undirsérgreina.
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