Countrywide management of pulmonary tuberculosis reverses increasing incidence.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of countrywide management of tuberculosis (TB) and the availability of second-line drugs (SLDs) on the notification rates of pulmonary TB (PTB) overall and of multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB), taking into account human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infection and the national economy in Estonia. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of notification rates and treatment outcomes of PTB and MDR-TB during 1998-2006. RESULTS: The annual notification rates of both PTB and MDR-TB decreased significantly, by on average 3.3 (P = 0.007) and 1.7 (P = 0.008) cases per 100,000 population, respectively. The accelerating impact of SLD availability on the annual decline was significant for both PTB overall and MDR-TB (P = 0.003 and P = 0.025, respectively). During 1998-2006, an increase in TB-HIV co-infection (P = 0.009) significantly affected the notification rates of both PTB overall and MDR-TB (P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively). The negative impact of TB-HIV co-infection was counterbalanced by the availability of SLDs, the decrease in the MDR-TB rate and the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, as confirmed by multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Countrywide access to SLDs and the coordinated effect of programmatic conditions can, in parallel with increasing GDP, reverse the increasing notification rates of PTB and MDR-TB in the context of an HIV epidemic.