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dc.contributor.authorWeinberger, Daniel M
dc.contributor.authorKrause, Tyra Grove
dc.contributor.authorMølbak, Kåre
dc.contributor.authorCliff, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorBriem, Haraldur
dc.contributor.authorViboud, Cécile
dc.contributor.authorGottfredsson, Magnus
dc.date.accessioned2013-09-23T11:11:28Z
dc.date.available2013-09-23T11:11:28Z
dc.date.issued2012-10-01
dc.date.submitted2013-09-23
dc.identifier.citationAm. J. Epidemiol. 2012, 176(7):649-55en_GB
dc.identifier.issn1476-6256
dc.identifier.pmid22962250
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/aje/kws140
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2336/302085
dc.descriptionTo access publisher's full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field.en_GB
dc.description.abstractInfluenza epidemics exhibit a strongly seasonal pattern, with winter peaks that occur with similar timing across temperate areas of the Northern Hemisphere. This synchrony could be influenced by population movements, environmental factors, host immunity, and viral characteristics. The historical isolation of Iceland and subsequent increase in international contacts make it an ideal setting to study epidemic timing. The authors evaluated changes in the timing and regional synchrony of influenza epidemics using mortality and morbidity data from Iceland, North America, and Europe during the period from 1915 to 2007. Cross-correlations and wavelet analyses highlighted 2 major changes in influenza epidemic patterns in Iceland: first was a shift from nonseasonal epidemics prior to the 1930s to a regular winter-seasonal pattern, and second was a change in the early 1990s when a 1-month lag between Iceland and the United States and Europe was no longer detectable with monthly data. There was a moderate association between increased synchrony and the number of foreign visitors to Iceland, providing a plausible explanation for the second shift in epidemic timing. This suggests that transportation might have a minor effect on epidemic timing, but efforts to restrict air travel during influenza epidemics would likely have a limited impact, even for island populations.
dc.description.sponsorshipInternational Influenza Unit, Office of Global Affairs, Department of Health and Human Services Fulbrighten_GB
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherOxford University Pressen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws140en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/176/7/649en_GB
dc.rightsArchived with thanks to American journal of epidemiologyen_GB
dc.subject.meshEpidemicsen_GB
dc.subject.meshEuropeen_GB
dc.subject.meshHumansen_GB
dc.subject.meshIcelanden_GB
dc.subject.meshInfluenza, Humanen_GB
dc.subject.meshModels, Statisticalen_GB
dc.subject.meshMultivariate Analysisen_GB
dc.subject.meshPeriodicityen_GB
dc.subject.meshPopulation Surveillanceen_GB
dc.subject.meshSeasonsen_GB
dc.subject.meshTravelen_GB
dc.subject.meshUnited Statesen_GB
dc.subject.meshWeatheren_GB
dc.titleInfluenza epidemics in Iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the United States and Europe.en
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentDivision of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.en_GB
dc.identifier.journalAmerican journal of epidemiologyen_GB
dc.rights.accessLandspitali Access - LSH-aðganguren
html.description.abstractInfluenza epidemics exhibit a strongly seasonal pattern, with winter peaks that occur with similar timing across temperate areas of the Northern Hemisphere. This synchrony could be influenced by population movements, environmental factors, host immunity, and viral characteristics. The historical isolation of Iceland and subsequent increase in international contacts make it an ideal setting to study epidemic timing. The authors evaluated changes in the timing and regional synchrony of influenza epidemics using mortality and morbidity data from Iceland, North America, and Europe during the period from 1915 to 2007. Cross-correlations and wavelet analyses highlighted 2 major changes in influenza epidemic patterns in Iceland: first was a shift from nonseasonal epidemics prior to the 1930s to a regular winter-seasonal pattern, and second was a change in the early 1990s when a 1-month lag between Iceland and the United States and Europe was no longer detectable with monthly data. There was a moderate association between increased synchrony and the number of foreign visitors to Iceland, providing a plausible explanation for the second shift in epidemic timing. This suggests that transportation might have a minor effect on epidemic timing, but efforts to restrict air travel during influenza epidemics would likely have a limited impact, even for island populations.


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